Many gamblers live their lives hoping to find a gambling system that will give them access to limitless wealth. Numerous online gambling systems sold by the modern equivalent of snake oil salesmen play into this, guaranteeing large profits through the use of mathematically and statistically unsound strategies.
While these strategies can often become quite complex, the reasons why the fail aren’t. All that is required to understand why no gambling system used on casino game that involves a series of independent outcomes can generate a profit over the long term, is simply an appreciation of the effects of the house edge.
Gambling systems rely on the fallacy that the mathematical laws expressed in the house edge can be avoided in some way. The truth is that any gambling system that involves random independent results will eventually generate losses according to the house edge.
Mathematicians and statisticians have modeled the house edge for every conceivable casino game and have consistently proven that there is no difference between using any given betting system and simply flat betting on a particular outcome in any casino game over the long term.
Therefore should a roulette ball land in a red pocket seven times in a row, it is believed that it is more likely to land in a black pocket on a subsequent spin. Gamblers playing blackjack might believe that they are more likely to win a hand after having lost several hands in succession.
The problem with the Gambler’s Fallacy is that it fails to appreciate that the result of each round of play on a casino game is statistically independent of the previous round of play. Any given result has exactly the same statistical probability of happening from one round of play to the next.
Therefore a coin toss will still have a 50% chance of coming up heads even if the previous hundred tosses resulted in the coin coming up as tails. The Gamblers Fallacy is part and parcel of the most notorious, and potentially ruinous, gambling system sold online – the Martingale System.
Optimal strategies for various casino games are widely available online for free. These strategies have been determined independently by numerous mathematicians, game theorists and statisticians, and are the product of exhaustive statistical testing.
In the game of blackjack, for example, use of an optimal strategy can push the house edge down from around 5% (the expected losses during play without strategy) to 0.5% or lower. Generally, the less skill a casino game involves, the less effect skilled play will have on the house edge.
Occasionally some casinos will even offer access to casino games that carry a player edge when played with optimal strategy. Furthermore, smart gamblers can use the comp points and cash-back rebates offered by online casinos to effectively negate the house edge on their favourite casino games.
Whatever the case, serious gamblers should always invest time in learning about the optimal strategy for playing their favourite online casino games rather than relying on get-rich-quick schemes based on a failure to understand the mathematics of gambling.
While these strategies can often become quite complex, the reasons why the fail aren’t. All that is required to understand why no gambling system used on casino game that involves a series of independent outcomes can generate a profit over the long term, is simply an appreciation of the effects of the house edge.
The House Edge
The house edge is a mathematical expression of what percentage of each bet a gambler can be expected to lose to a casino over the long term. The house edge can range from less than 0.5% for games like blackjack when played with optimal strategy, to up to 25% for random outcome games like keno.The House Edge vs. Gambling Systems
The house edge is an iron-cast statistical law attached to every casino game that does not facilitate skilled play. While players may be able to beat the house in the short term, statistics and mathematics dictate that these winnings will be cancelled out in the long term.Gambling systems rely on the fallacy that the mathematical laws expressed in the house edge can be avoided in some way. The truth is that any gambling system that involves random independent results will eventually generate losses according to the house edge.
Mathematicians and statisticians have modeled the house edge for every conceivable casino game and have consistently proven that there is no difference between using any given betting system and simply flat betting on a particular outcome in any casino game over the long term.
Gamblers Fallacy
Besides failing to understand the mathematical laws expressed in a house edge, many gambling systems fall prey to what is described as the Gambler’s Fallacy or Monte Carlo Fallacy. This fallacy rests on the assumption that an event becomes more likely every time it fails to occur.Therefore should a roulette ball land in a red pocket seven times in a row, it is believed that it is more likely to land in a black pocket on a subsequent spin. Gamblers playing blackjack might believe that they are more likely to win a hand after having lost several hands in succession.
The problem with the Gambler’s Fallacy is that it fails to appreciate that the result of each round of play on a casino game is statistically independent of the previous round of play. Any given result has exactly the same statistical probability of happening from one round of play to the next.
Therefore a coin toss will still have a 50% chance of coming up heads even if the previous hundred tosses resulted in the coin coming up as tails. The Gamblers Fallacy is part and parcel of the most notorious, and potentially ruinous, gambling system sold online – the Martingale System.
Optimal Strategy vs. Gambling Systems
It is important to note that the statistical modeling of several casino games has resulted in the development of optimal strategies for these games. Optimal strategies can be used to push down the house edge in games requiring skill such as blackjack and pontoon.Optimal strategies for various casino games are widely available online for free. These strategies have been determined independently by numerous mathematicians, game theorists and statisticians, and are the product of exhaustive statistical testing.
In the game of blackjack, for example, use of an optimal strategy can push the house edge down from around 5% (the expected losses during play without strategy) to 0.5% or lower. Generally, the less skill a casino game involves, the less effect skilled play will have on the house edge.
Alternatives to Gambling Systems
An alternative to using gambling systems is to look out for casino games with a low house edge or to limit play to casinos with high payout percentages. Betfair, for example, offers a Zero Lounge where no games carry a house edge.Occasionally some casinos will even offer access to casino games that carry a player edge when played with optimal strategy. Furthermore, smart gamblers can use the comp points and cash-back rebates offered by online casinos to effectively negate the house edge on their favourite casino games.
Whatever the case, serious gamblers should always invest time in learning about the optimal strategy for playing their favourite online casino games rather than relying on get-rich-quick schemes based on a failure to understand the mathematics of gambling.